Baseline Projections
USDA’s long-term agricultural projections are a departmental consensus on a long-run representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. These projections are issued every year, usually in February. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income. The projections identify major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets; prospects for long-term global economic growth, agricultural production, consumption, and trade; and U.S. exports of major farm commodities and future price movements.
The World Agricultural Outlook Board chairs the interagency committee that develops the projections and is responsible for the review and clearance of the report. The Economic Research Service coordinates input to the economic models behind the analysis and drafts the text of the report. Other agencies involved in the long-term projections analysis and review process include the Farm Production and Conservation Business Center; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Office of the Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; and the Risk Management Agency.
For more information on USDA's long-term projections, visit the ERS Website.
Early-Release Tables from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034
The USDA released the U.S. focused portion of the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034 report on November 7, 2024, with the complete report due to be released in February 2025. The projections reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses and were prepared during August through October 2024. The November early-release only includes the tables below.
The projections use as a starting point the short-term forecasts from the October 11, 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Errata: On December 20, 2024, USDA, ERS and the Office of the Chief Economist revised the USDA Long-Term Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2034 long-grain rice table (table 13) posted on their respective websites to adjust values for yields, production, domestic use and residual, and stocks for the entire projection period, 2025/26 through 2034/35. No other variables or commodities were affected.
U.S. Macroeconomic Assumptions
Real Exchange Rate Assumptions
Global GDP Shares and GDP Growth Assumptions
Population Growth Assumptions
Acreage for Major U.S. Field Crops and Conservation Reserve Program Assumptions
U.S. Feed Grains
U.S. Wheat
U.S. Rice (XLSX, 32.3 KB)
U.S. Soybeans and Products
U.S. Upland Cotton
U.S. Sugar
U.S. Livestock
U.S. Dairy
USDA Agricultural Projections to 2033
This report was released on February 14, 2024. PDF (PDF, 3.0 MB)
Previously released Excel tables (ZIP, 3.3 MB) (zipped)
Projections Database
Tables from current and previous Baseline reports are available on the report archive on the Mann Library website.
Previous reports are available on the Baseline Report page on the ERS website.
Long-Term Projections Process
Background on USDA's long-term projections and process are available on the ERS Website.
Contact Erik Dohlman, James Hansen, or Bill Chambers for further information.
